Latest UN report: Temperature rise of 2.7C by the end of century unless actions are taken now
Most countries far from meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement
The total global greenhouse gas (GHG) emission level in 2030 taking into account implementation of the latest Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) is expected to be 16.3 per cent above the 2010 level.
UN Climate Change today published a synthesis of climate action plans as communicated in countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The NDC Synthesis report indicates that while there is a clear trend that greenhouse gas emissions are being reduced over time, nations must urgently redouble their climate efforts if they are to prevent global temperature increases beyond the Paris Agreement’s goal of well below 2C – ideally 1.5C – by the end of the century.
The report also contains some worrying findings.
The available NDCs of all 191 Parties taken together imply a sizable increase in global GHG emissions in 2030 compared to 2010, of about 16%. According to the latest IPCC findings, such an increase, unless actions are taken immediately, may lead to a temperature rise of about 2.7C by the end of the century.
Total global GHG emission level, taking into account implementation of the latest NDCs of all Parties to the Paris Agreement, is estimated to be around 54.8 Gt CO2 eq in 2025 and 55.1 Gt CO2 eq in 2030, which are:
(a) In 2025, 58.6 per cent higher than in 1990 ,
15.8 per cent higher than in 2010
4.5 per cent higher than in 2019 ;
(b) In 2030, 59.3 per cent higher than in 1990, 16.3 per cent higher than in 2010 and 5.0 per cent higher than 2019.
Comparison of global emissions under scenarios assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C with total global emissions ccording to nationally determined contributions (NDC)
The illustrative SSP scenarios considered in the contribution of Working Group I to the AR6 are indicated by a yellow solid line, with an estimated end-of-century temperature of 2.7 °C).
The total GHG emission level resulting from implementation of the latest NDCs is compared with the emission levels for three of the scenario groups in the SR1.5 scenario database: a group of scenarios in which global mean temperature rise is kept at all times below 1.5 °C relative to the 1850–1900 (“below 1.5 °C”); a group of scenarios in which warming is kept at around 1.5 °C with a potential limited overshoot and then decrease of global mean temperature rise below 1.5 °C by the end of the century ( “1.5 °C with limited overshoot”); and a third group that implies warming of well below 2 °C, that is above 1.5 °C by 2100 but with a likely chance of it being below 2 °C at all times (“lower 2 °C”). The latter group features scenarios with strong emission reductions in the 2020s or only after 2030.
The total global GHG emission level in 2030 taking into account implementation of the latest NDCs is expected to be 16.3 per cent above the 2010 level. Taken together with the information in figure 9 and paragraph 149 above, this implies an urgent need for either a significant increase in the level of ambition of NDCs between now and 2030 or a significant overachievement of the latest NDCs, or a combination of both, in order to attain cost-optimal emission levels suggested in many of the scenarios considered by the IPCC. If emissions are not reduced by 2030, they will need to be substantially reduced thereafter to compensate for the slow start on the path to net zero emissions. the SR1.5 identifies net zero CO2 emissions as a prerequisite for halting warming at any level. 151. On the basis of the latest NDCs, cumulative CO2 emissions in 2020–2030 are estimated to be around 445 Gt.
In the context of the carbon budget consistent with 50 per cent likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5 °C, cumulative CO2 emissions in 2020–2030 based on the latest NDCs would likely use up 89 per cent of the remaining carbon budget, leaving a post-2030 carbon budget of around 55 Gt CO2,which is equivalent to the average annual CO2 emissions in 020–2030.
Similarly, in the context of the carbon budget consistent with a likely chance of keeping warming below 2 °C, cumulative CO2 emissions in 2020–2030 based on the latest NDCs would likely use up 39 per cent of the remaining carbon budget.
Incoming COP26 President Alok Sharma referring to the Initial NDC Report in FEB 2021: “This report should serve as an urgent Call to Action and I am asking all countries, particularly major emitters, to submit ambitious 2030 emission reduction targets”.
“We must recognise that the window for action to safeguard our planet is closing fast”, he added.
“2021 is a make or break year to confront the global climate emergency. The science is clear, to limit global temperature rise to 1.5C, we must cut global emissions by 45% by 2030 from 2010 levels. Today’s interim report from the UNFCCC is a red alert for our planet. It shows governments are nowhere close to the level of ambition needed to limit climate change to 1.5 degrees and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. The major emitters must step up with much more ambitious emissions reductions targets for 2030 in their Nationally Determined Contributions well before the November UN Climate Conference in Glasgow,”
UN Secretary-General António Guterres, FEB, 2021
Framework Convention on Climate Change
Nationally determined contributions (NDC) under the ParisAgreement, SEP 2021
Bernd Riebe, SEP 2021
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